Showing posts with label stocks. Show all posts
Showing posts with label stocks. Show all posts

Sunday, October 7, 2012

Why Not Gold?

Gold is an investment which hedges against inflation. The reason is that as more money is printed and put into the economy the less valuable the dollar becomes. If you were able to predict the future and you knew more money would be printed, you could buy $10 worth of gold today and later sell it for $15.

So, the first reason I wouldn't purchase gold is because this investment is purely speculative. The second reason I won't purchase gold is that while I am holding the gold, I cannot make any money off it. A good investor who purchased gold, would open a museum and charge people to look at the gold while holding it. This would be great because he would be making money and have staying power to wait until prices went up.

Now, the situation described above is a simplified explanation of why gold hedges against inflation. However, in reality, other investors also understand that gold hedges against inflation. This should be taken into account when purchasing gold. Because of supply and demand, when you purchase gold as an investment, you are assuming that you know inflation will occur, even more than other investors know inflation will occur, because other investors have already driven up the cost. The third reason I wouldn't purchase gold is because gold is such a common investment that investing in gold is a bet that you know more than other investors.

Past results do not reflect future performance. With investments, it can sometimes be the opposite. For instance, if gold prices have consistently gone up at unbelievable rates for the past ten years, I would probably sell my gold and take a decent profit rather than trying to wait and hit a home run. I would be reminded of the internet bubble and the housing bubble.

In fact, I am going to make a prediction here. I am going to bet that the gold bubble bursts long before investors can profit from their bets that inflation will occur in the future.

So, if past results, do not reflect future performance, then why do I continue to invest in the stock market? Well, when it comes to people, past results definitely reflect future performance. If I had a friend who had trouble staying faithful to his partner, I would bet that he would continue to have the same trouble in future relationships. If I have a friend who has been successful in his career for the past ten years and has continued to grow and develop, I would place a strong bet on him that his career would continue to advance, despite what the public says or the state of the economy. If I had a friend who doubled the revenue of a company for five years straight and was starting a new company, I would place a strong bet on his company that it would double in revenue the first few years. The reason is that the character of people tends to stay the same throughout a person's life.

With the stock market, you can make an educated guest about future earnings. Then, you can do some numbers and see if makes sense to purchase based on your overall portfolio and strategy.

Dedicated to Dave Brubeck.

Support My Mission

1. You can support my mission by donating via my e-mail address (scottizu@gmail.com) and PayPal.

2. You can support the mission of SAGE by donating at http://sagescholars.berkeley.edu/. The UC Berkeley SAGE (Student Achievement Guided by Experience) is a self-funded experiential leadership program that provides education, professional development, mentoring and internships to UC Berkeley students who come from poverty and low income backgrounds.

3. You may also contact me for a free 1-hour consultation to discuss how I can help you.

Saturday, September 22, 2012

How Dividends Work

I am a huge fan of dividend paying stocks. I like companies that are paying back their investors now and only use their investor's money so they don't get into a situation where they have a deal on the table that they can't do because they don't have the capital to back the deal.

So, let me talk a little about how dividends work. This discussion is inspired by a talk with a good friend who asked me why a person would not just buy a stock before the dividend paid out and then sell the stock after the dividend paid out. He also did not know about the x-dividend date, so I will clarify that here.

If a stock pays dividends quarterly, the board of directors will meet after each quarter to declare a dividend (or decide not to pay a dividend). In this scenario, I will just assume the second quarter has finished and the board of directors are meeting on July 10th to declare a $1 dividend. We can just call July 10th the "meeting date". This means the company will pay $1 to each shareholder for every share owned. In the meeting, let's say they also decided to make the "record date" on July 20th and the "payable date" on July 30th. Then, the "x-dividend date" is July 18th, which is determined by FINRA to be two business days prior the "record date".

  • June 30th - End of second quarter
  • July 10th - Meeting date (determined by board)
  • July 18th - X-Dividend date (determined by FINRA)
  • July 20th - Record date (determined by board)
  • July 30th - Payable date (determined by board)
If the stock cost $50 per share on July 17th, the price would automatically be adjusted to $49 per share on July 18th. Whoever owned the stock on July 17th would be paid the $1 dividend, even if that person sold the stock on July 18th. The owner of the stock on July 17th would be recorded by the company as the owner of the stock on July 20th and would be paid the $1 dividend on July 30th.

The important thing to note is that you do not want to purchase the stock on July 17th because you will buy the stock for $50 per share and then be paid a $1 dividend per share and then taxed on the $1 dividend per share. It is better to purchase the stock after the "x-dividend date", once the stock has been discounted to $40 per share.

Support My Mission

1. You can support my mission by visiting http://www.izuservices.com and donating. A dollar lets me know you support my mission or like my posts. Thank you for those who have already donated.

2. Donate to SAGE via http://sagescholars.berkeley.edu/. The UC Berkeley SAGE (Student Achievement Guided by Experience) is a self-funded experiential leadership program that provides education, professional development, mentoring and internships to UC Berkeley students who come from poverty and low income backgrounds. I serve on the Leadership Council for SAGE and want to help raise money for their cause.

3. Call toll-free (877) 855-8111 or log on to www.PrimericaSecure.com to save yourself some money on either your home or auto insurance policies. Be sure to use my last name (IZU) and solution number (2MTFT). PrimericaSecure automatically compares rates from multiple companies such as Progressive, Travelers, Safeco, Hallmark, etc.

Monday, August 27, 2012

The Second Tier of Building Wealth

The second tier of building wealth is learning how to have your money make money. If you don't know how to earn money, you won't have any money anyway, which is why the first tier is so important.
Managing Your Money
The first part of this tier is learning how to manage your money. Rather than flying by the seat of your pants, it is important to have a game plan and set goals. Learning how to make a budget and having the discipline to stick to that budget are key.

"A penny saved is a penny earned."

"Those who make 4 dollars and spend 3 will always be better off than those who make 5 dollars and spend 6." - me

“Most people don’t receive a formal education about financial matters, but it’s an important life skill.” - http://www.northbaybiz.com/General_Articles/General_Articles/Amazing_Savers.php

Avoiding Debt
Debt is a cancer. Debt is a disease. It affects stress, health and relationships. On the national scale, we are about 70 trillion in debt, if we include future debts such as Social Security and Medicare (http://www.truthin2008.org/"http://www.truthin2008.org/). On the individual level, "Credit card debt is the third largest source of household indebtedness, averaging $15,587 per indebted household as of June 2012" (http://www.nerdwallet.com/blog/credit-card-data/average-credit-card-debt-household/). While some people believe debt increases productivity, I think we should be attacking the statistics above head on.

People often get upset when taxes are raised, yet will gladly pay a 3% tax to use their credit cards. Of course credit card companies are smart so they charge businesses and people think they are not being charged if they pay off their credit cards on time. Even worse, people don't pay their credit cards off each month which leads to 10%-25% in additional fees.

A quick side note. There are arguments that businesses should have debt because they leverage money and increase investor returns. I absolutely believe in the power of leveraging money, but that is another blog posting.

Create an Emergency Fund
Everyone should have 3 to 6 months of living expenses saved up for emergencies. I have heard it quoted that for every $10,000 in your annual salary, it may take a month to find that pay in a job, if you were to lose your job. That is, to find a 100K job, if that is your salary, it might take 10 months to find that job. In addition to losing your job, you may have to replace your car or take care of another emergency.

If you do not have an emergency fund and have credit card debt, I would advocate eliminating your credit card debt and building an emergency fund at the same time. An emergency fund can be placed in a checking, savings, money market account or certificate of deposit. This purpose of this fund is not to make money, but be liquid, meaning that you have access to the fund within a week's time frame.

Playing the Money Game
Once you have followed the above rules, you will be able to start playing the money game. You will become a lender and not a borrower. That's right, I said you be the bank. Rather than give the money to the bank, find out where the bank is investing the money you are giving it. I think that its very sad that we have become a society where we go to the bank to get loans, rather than visiting that rich uncle. What has happened to the strength of an individual's word? Why not register a promissary note which is based on a mere handshake?

Besides, the emergency fund and the 529 plans for college savings accounts, you should have a couple more buckets used to build your financial house. Diversification is an important word. For those who had all of their savings in mutual funds or stocks in their 401(k) plans in 2008, they may have had 50% of their estate taken out. On the other hand, suppose you had something like a 50% real estate, 25% stocks and 25% bonds. Now, imagine you lost 50% in stocks. This means you really only lost 12.5% of your estate.

Any well built financial house will include a diversified portfolio along with tax considerations. It will also include considerations on liquidity (like short or long term).

More importantly, realize that "No one will protect your money better than yourself." If your financial planner is not teaching you about money, they are not doing their job. A good financial planner will give you information and then let you make decisions about your money. They will not give you a single option and tell you that its the perfect plan, because no one can predict the future. Rather than pass the buck to your finanical planner, learn enough to be able to ask the right questions.

Most people who lost money in real estate, lost because they didn't know how to evaluate home prices or do other number crunching. This is true because over the past ten years while many were losing, those who knew were still making money. It is shocking to me that right after the sub prime mortgage crisis, people are still putting 3-5% down on homes and taking out a 30 year loan.

Most people who took a huge hit in stocks, also lost because they didn't know what they were investing in or how their investment worked. With the advancement of the internet, people can now invest in any publically traded company with the click of a button. They do not look at the investment, they just tell themselves, "Well, Apple is a great company with a great product." So, if someone told me that, I might respond, "If you had 1 trillion dollars, does that mean you would be willing to purchase Apple with that 1 trillion dollars?" It is shocking to me that right after the stock market crashes of 2001 and 2008 people continue handing their money off to someone who is making money whether they gain or lose money.

Whether in real estate or in the stock market, based on many people I have interviewed, I have found a huge difference between people who know how to have their money make money and people who don't. Those who do, often live by this phrase, "If the numbers work, I will do the deal. If they don't, I won't."

Support My Mission

1. You can support my mission by visiting http://www.izuservices.com and donating. A dollar lets me know you support my mission or like my posts. Thank you for those who have already donated.

2. Donate to SAGE via http://sagescholars.berkeley.edu/. The UC Berkeley SAGE (Student Achievement Guided by Experience) is a self-funded experiential leadership program that provides education, professional development, mentoring and internships to UC Berkeley students who come from poverty and low income backgrounds. I serve on the Leadership Council for SAGE and want to help raise money for their cause.

3. Call toll-free (877) 855-8111 or log on to www.PrimericaSecure.com to save yourself some money on either your home or auto insurance policies. Be sure to use my last name (IZU) and solution number (2MTFT). PrimericaSecure automatically compares rates from multiple companies such as Progressive, Travelers, Safeco, Hallmark, etc.