Sunday, October 28, 2012

Whole Life Versus Buy Term and Invest the Difference

Age

Premium

Value

Death

Premium

Investment

Value

Death

33

4800

0

403081

552

4248

4432.309

504432.3

34

4800

0

406376

552

4248

9211.224

509211.2

35

12000

10250

416972

552

11448

21876.24

521876.2

36

12000

22016

428221

552

11448

35531.66

535531.7

37

12000

34850

440538

552

11448

50254.93

550254.9

38

12000

48445

453615

552

11448

66129.56

566129.6

39

12000

63227

467881

552

11448

83245.59

583245.6

40

12000

78955

483092

552

11448

101700.1

601700.1

41

12000

95934

499553

552

11448

121597.7

621597.7

42

12000

114949

518051

552

11448

143051.4

643051.4

43

11223

135690

538275

552

10671

165372

665372

44

10620

157664

559732

552

10068

188808.9

688808.9

45

10620

181318

582869

552

10068

214078.6

714078.6

46

10620

206950

607984

552

10068

241324.3

741324.3

47

10620

234770

635287

552

10068

270700.7

770700.7

48

10620

264864

664864

552

10068

302374.3

802374.3

49

10620

296943

696943

552

10068

336524.8

836524.8

50

10620

331612

731612

552

10068

373345.9

873345.9

51

10620

369133

769133

552

10068

413046.3

913046.3

52

10620

409863

809863

552

10068

455851.4

955851.4

53

10620

453985

853985

1575

9045

500936.4

1000936

54

10620

501782

901782

1575

9045

549547.1

1049547

55

10620

553473

953473

1575

9045

601959.1

1101959

56

10620

609358

1009358

1575

9045

658469.7

1158470

57

10620

669919

1069919

1575

9045

719399.5

1219399

58

10620

735505

1135505

1575

9045

785094

1285094

59

10620

806558

1206558

1575

9045

855925.8

1355926

60

10620

883446

1283446

1575

9045

932296.6

1432297

61

10620

966576

1366576

1575

9045

1014640

1514640

62

10620

1056580

1456580

1575

9045

1103422

1603422

63

0

1143823

1456580

0

0

1189709

1189709

64

0

1238855

1511403

0

0

1282745

1282745

65

0

1341551

1609861

0

0

1383055

1383055

66

0

1304978

1581027

0

0

1337013

1337013

67

0

1267837

1550996

0

0

1287369

1287369

68

0

1230983

1520603

0

0

1233844

1233844

69

0

1194144

1489327

0

0

1176133

1176133

70

0

1157463

1457112

0

0

1113909

1113909

71

0

1121188

1402368

0

0

1046819

1046819

72

0

1085612

1343205

0

0

974482.2

974482.2

These tables are based on a whole life insurance policy illustration given to me on June 24th, 2012. The first Premium, Value and Death columns represent the Premium, Cash Value and Death Benefit of the $400,000 Whole Life Insurance policy with an increasing death benefit. The second Premium, Investment, Value and Death columns represent the effect of purchasing a 20 Year $500,000 Term Life Insurance policy with Primerica and investing the difference into an investment account.

  • Assumes a 7.82% Interest Rate
  • Whole Life Premium = Term Life Premium + Investment
  • At age 66, annual withdrawls of $143,014 are made
  • LV(M) = LV(M-1) * 1.0782 + sum (n=1,12) [ (LI(M)/12)*(1+.0782/12)^n ]

LV(M) stands for LifeValue and represents the value in the investment account after the Mth year for the "Buy Term and Invest the Difference" strategy. LI(M) stands for LifeInvestment and represents the value being invested during the Mth year. The term "sum(n=1,12)" is usually written using a capital sigma and is a shorthand notation which represents adding all the terms as n ranges from 1 to 12.

Renewable Term versus Convertible Term

Here, I assume that at age 53, I will use the guaranteed renewal aspect to purchase a new 20 year term. Then, at age 63, I will let the policy lapse. The reason I did this is to try to compare with the policy illustration which assumed no more payments would be made at age 63.

It is important to note that Primerica Life Insurance is renewable term (no need for new medical exams). Most term life insurance is convertible term, which is not good, since you only have the option to convert to whole life after the term is finished. These companies plan to hit you with high renewal rates in the future.

Theory of Decreasing Responsibility

Based on the theory of decreasing responsibility, once the kids are grown and the mortgages are paid off, the need for life insurance goes down dramatically. In general, this means that you would normally stop paying for life insurance as you get older since the rates will start to become extremely high.

Whole Life Cash Value

In a whole life policy (aka universal life, indexed universal life, variable life), the cash value is owned by the life insurance company. There are often more fees and less control than in a normal retirement account. Since premiums are paid with after tax dollars, this is comparable to using a ROTH IRA to accumulate money tax free. One might also compare the wealth transfer ability of various ROTH IRAs to the wealth transfer ability of a whole life policy, in terms of being able to avoid income tax, estate tax and probate.

Unlike using a ROTH IRA, when the "withdrawls" occur, there is a major difference between the whole life policy and the ROTH IRA. In a whole life policy, the withdrawls are loaned from the account. This means that after the withdrawls from age 66 to 72, the cash value loan would be $1,001,098, meaning that you might have to pay $40,000 or so a year to cover interest. This is used to pay for the continued life insurance coverage each year! Most people don't know this and their policy typically implodes on itself as they get older and coverage becomes more expensive. This is why I have not run the numbers out to age 121. My illustration was run out to age 121 to imply that I would have a 9.6 million cash value and 11.2 million death benefit.

Even worse is that the assumed rate of 7.82% may not even be achieved in which case keeping the whole life policy is even more difficult. The increased cost given here along with the analysis is why over 25% of people lapse their whole life policy within the first three years, after paying a lot of money in commissions and fees.

Conclusion

The conclusion is that you might wait 30 or 40 years for your whole life policy to catch up to the alternative. After that time, you will then realize that your policy can no longer handle the high cost of insurance coverage. My advice would be to do some research or ask a professional since many times these contracts may be quite complex.

Dedicated to Jerry Izu.

Support My Mission

1. You can support my mission by donating via my e-mail address (scottizu@gmail.com) and PayPal.

2. You can support the mission of SAGE by donating at http://sagescholars.berkeley.edu/. The UC Berkeley SAGE (Student Achievement Guided by Experience) is a self-funded experiential leadership program that provides education, professional development, mentoring and internships to UC Berkeley students who come from poverty and low income backgrounds.

3. You may also contact me for a free 1-hour consultation to discuss how I can help you.

Wednesday, October 17, 2012

My Two Cents on the Political Debates

In the debate I heard about so many issues we asked the president to solve. I wonder if anyone out there is tired of waiting for someone else to do something, tired of leaving their future in the hands of others.

WOMEN'S SALARIES

The statistics are staggering. In 2011, women's salaries were 77% of their male counterparts (www.pay-equity.org/). Women, if you want higher salaries, learn the art of negotiation. Continue to break down walls and break down those barriers. Take a stand.

In my opinion, women are far more talented when it comes to relationship building. To me this should mean that they have a better chance of navigating through a negotiation.

HISPANICS

The Hispanic culture still gets the low end of the stick in our society. While the Asian society has flourished, getting claims such as the "University of Caucasians Lost among Asians" (UCLA), the Hispanic culture still suffers. To the hispanics, I say the same thing. The key to breaking social barriers, has always been education. There are obviously more factors, but this can be a starting point.

Learn finance and business skills, so that you can help out your communities. The statistics show that Hispanics are lost when it comes to finances and saving for their future, with 43% strongly agreeing that they have financial questions for which they could use a professional that they trust. If you are hispanic, why not let that professional be you.

If you are affected by the Dream Act, I know it is rough, but your time will come. There are many ways to get an education and while you are young, don't let the laws and drawbacks of our society stop you from learning. The libraries and bookshelves are filled with endless knowledge that you can tap into. One day, you may have honorary degrees given to you despite ever stepping onto a particular campus.

JOBS

While our economy is bad, we look to the nation's leaders to create jobs. Each week, I meet new people, well capable of creating jobs, with skillsets that measure great in our communities. It is not government who needs to create jobs, but us, as a people who need to create jobs. It is us as a people who need to take a stand and actively influence the economy.

We can better the economy just by connecting two people who are looking for each other, by opening our mouth, by actively supporting our communities. We have so much power to stimulate the economy and should focus on this, despite the winner of a debate, who will sit in a house all the way across the nation.

Dedicated to Martha Alvarez.

Support My Mission

1. You can support my mission by donating via my e-mail address (scottizu@gmail.com) and PayPal.

2. You can support the mission of SAGE by donating at http://sagescholars.berkeley.edu/. The UC Berkeley SAGE (Student Achievement Guided by Experience) is a self-funded experiential leadership program that provides education, professional development, mentoring and internships to UC Berkeley students who come from poverty and low income backgrounds.

3. You may also contact me for a free 1-hour consultation to discuss how I can help you.

Sunday, October 7, 2012

Why Not Gold?

Gold is an investment which hedges against inflation. The reason is that as more money is printed and put into the economy the less valuable the dollar becomes. If you were able to predict the future and you knew more money would be printed, you could buy $10 worth of gold today and later sell it for $15.

So, the first reason I wouldn't purchase gold is because this investment is purely speculative. The second reason I won't purchase gold is that while I am holding the gold, I cannot make any money off it. A good investor who purchased gold, would open a museum and charge people to look at the gold while holding it. This would be great because he would be making money and have staying power to wait until prices went up.

Now, the situation described above is a simplified explanation of why gold hedges against inflation. However, in reality, other investors also understand that gold hedges against inflation. This should be taken into account when purchasing gold. Because of supply and demand, when you purchase gold as an investment, you are assuming that you know inflation will occur, even more than other investors know inflation will occur, because other investors have already driven up the cost. The third reason I wouldn't purchase gold is because gold is such a common investment that investing in gold is a bet that you know more than other investors.

Past results do not reflect future performance. With investments, it can sometimes be the opposite. For instance, if gold prices have consistently gone up at unbelievable rates for the past ten years, I would probably sell my gold and take a decent profit rather than trying to wait and hit a home run. I would be reminded of the internet bubble and the housing bubble.

In fact, I am going to make a prediction here. I am going to bet that the gold bubble bursts long before investors can profit from their bets that inflation will occur in the future.

So, if past results, do not reflect future performance, then why do I continue to invest in the stock market? Well, when it comes to people, past results definitely reflect future performance. If I had a friend who had trouble staying faithful to his partner, I would bet that he would continue to have the same trouble in future relationships. If I have a friend who has been successful in his career for the past ten years and has continued to grow and develop, I would place a strong bet on him that his career would continue to advance, despite what the public says or the state of the economy. If I had a friend who doubled the revenue of a company for five years straight and was starting a new company, I would place a strong bet on his company that it would double in revenue the first few years. The reason is that the character of people tends to stay the same throughout a person's life.

With the stock market, you can make an educated guest about future earnings. Then, you can do some numbers and see if makes sense to purchase based on your overall portfolio and strategy.

Dedicated to Dave Brubeck.

Support My Mission

1. You can support my mission by donating via my e-mail address (scottizu@gmail.com) and PayPal.

2. You can support the mission of SAGE by donating at http://sagescholars.berkeley.edu/. The UC Berkeley SAGE (Student Achievement Guided by Experience) is a self-funded experiential leadership program that provides education, professional development, mentoring and internships to UC Berkeley students who come from poverty and low income backgrounds.

3. You may also contact me for a free 1-hour consultation to discuss how I can help you.